QUESTION: Marty, it seems that the September panic was on the upside, and it additionally seems to be a turning level. It appears to be like like it could be a excessive within the Dow and Gold on a closing foundation. I have to say, it’s far simpler to see now that this election stands out as the final. Does making a panic to the upside and a excessive dovetail right into a struggle situation you may have been warning about for the election?
Kerry
ANSWER: I laid out the dangers in gold on the personal weblog. Sure, the Panic was to the upside (see Glossary), and you might be appropriate; this doesn’t bode properly for the close to future. A Panic to the Draw back would have supplied a shopping for alternative in October, however this sample is sending up a pink flare. A Panic to the Upside is a transparent warning that the sample unfolding could be very critical, and it certainly consists of the excessive chance of main civil unrest that may damage home markets as no one will settle for the end result. The issue we’ve is what I warned about all through this 12 months. There stays a danger that our Neocons worry a Trump victory and are pushing for struggle earlier than the Election.
Israel attacked a Russian airbase beneath the pretense that Iran dropped off provides there for Hezbolla. Our workplace in UAE has reported that Russia has warned all Russians to get out of Israel ASAP. In the meantime, Russia is popping up the warmth and is Increasing in Ukraine. Zelensky despatched a power to invade Russia in hopes that they’d assault something in NATO to assert Russia was the aggressor. Putin is just not silly.
Zelensky’s Victory Plan is to make use of long-range missiles to wage a full-scale struggle on Russia to destroy as a lot as doable previous to a NATO invasion. I’ve warned that Putin should reverse his place and take this struggle severely as a NATO invasion or be overthrown by the Russian hardline Neocons. Our mannequin focused October for this, so we’ve simply seen Putin reject peace negotiations. He has been pressured to see actuality. He has licensed glid bombs launched from plane, however he may additionally use the Father of All Bonds, which is the biggest non-nuclear weapon that has the influence of a small nuke.
Our workplace within the UAE is reporting that whereas Israel attacked the Russian airbase, it looks as if the individuals of Syria are break up on whether or not they like Assad or not. The Kurds are towards Hezbollah/Iran/Russia and have been fairly blissful Israel took out Nazrellah. Iranian Khomani spoke to unite the Muslims towards Israel. Our workers there commented that it looks as if it’s going to kick off when Israel assaults Iran.
This weekend is Israel’s vacation, so it’s regular to go quiet. Nevertheless, Biden did reply to a query about whether or not attacking Iran’s power facility is probably going. He mentioned he was in dialogue with Israel, thereby confirming that the US is concerned strategically. That was not very good. That assertion confirms to the Arab world that the American Neocons are concerned.
The opposite facet of this identical coin is that Iran may additionally shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which might ship power costs sky-high within the West utilizing oil as a weapon, as was the case throughout the Nineteen Seventies. It was October seventh, 1973, when Iraq nationalized the holdings of the 2 U.S. oil corporations working within the Arab nation, Exxon and Mobil. They did so to point out assist for Egypt and Syria of their struggle towards Israel. October seventh, 2023, was the Hammas assault on the Jewish vacation. We should always anticipate assaults contained in the USA on Monday, the seventh, in sympathy with the Arab world and the assist with impunity for Israel, as even some Democrats at the moment are arguing.
This 1973 Oil Embargo was 51 years in the past. Our fashions present that Crude is more likely to press greater, however will probably be in 2025 after we see the annual stage grow to be a grave difficulty. We might even see a disaster in power by March 2025 changing into apparent. The Neocons all the time need struggle. But, they’ve misplaced each single one since World Warfare II. No one in Washington will cease them.
Panic Cycle – Usually, a Panic Cycle is one thing that may exceed the earlier excessive and penetrate the earlier low. It’ll historically take out each earlier session occasions. Nevertheless, it can be simply an excessive transfer in a single path, which is usually indicated by opening above the earlier excessive or beneath the earlier session low.
