The end result of November’s presidential election might have main implications for some in style expertise shares. Forward of the high-stakes race, Raymond James laid out an inventory of some key expertise, media and telecommunications shares that would profit in a wide range of completely different outcomes. In 2020, the agency’s picks outperformed the S & P 500 by 1% between the election and inauguration — and seven.7% within the 12 months that adopted. Broadly talking, Raymond James views a Donald Trump reelection as a possible boon for the business and synthetic intelligence — with heightened export controls within the semiconductor business. It might additionally result in elevated tensions with China and the obstruction of mergers and acquisitions exercise throughout borders. “The deregulatory focus of a second Trump administration would probably see much less federal oversight and the potential rollback of reporting necessities for AI corporations creating frontier fashions, whereas additionally supporting knowledge heart growth by nuclear power allowing,” wrote Ed Mills, the agency’s Washington coverage analyst. In the meantime, a victory by Vice President Kamala Harris might result in tighter AI laws centered on security, ethics and defending shoppers, he mentioned. Mills additionally anticipates extra deal with supporting home semiconductor manufacturing. Democratic sweep A Harris presidency and a Democrat-led Congress may very well be a boon for firms with publicity to local weather regulation and “excessive margin vertical” software program firms with much less cyclical publicity, the agency mentioned. That features cloud options supplier Veeva Methods . Jabil and Flex must also profit on this situation, the agency mentioned, with analyst Melissa Fairbanks noting {that a} Harris win would incentivize photo voltaic and renewable power. Shares of Jabil have slumped about 10% this 12 months, whereas Flex has outperformed the market and gained greater than 44%. Visa is one other potential winner in a Democratic sweep, poised to profit from the chance of a better company tax price, in line with analyst John Davis. “A Democratic sweep would probably improve regulatory scrutiny throughout banks and enormous cap expertise, which traditionally has leads to outperformance by giant cap fintech as these shares are typically hiding locations for each tech and monetary portfolio managers,” he wrote. Break up eventualities Raymond James views some firms as beneficiaries even in a break up authorities end result. For Democrats, that might imply Harris as president, a break up Home and a Republican Senate. In a break up authorities underneath Trump, it interprets to a Democrat-led Home and predominantly Republican Senate. The agency views Microsoft as a kind of potential winners. Whereas the corporate might face regulatory scrutiny surrounding AI and its dimension, analyst Andrew Marok views break up authorities as an optimum end result that might forestall any social gathering from establishing a “regulatory agenda to the fullest extent.” AI chip large Nvidia is one other probably winner in each break up eventualities and a Republican sweep, the agency mentioned. It expects the chip behemoth to profit from Trump’s relationship with Saudi Arabia and chip promoting within the area. Shares have rallied greater than 149% this 12 months as the corporate capitalizes on AI tailwinds. NVDA YTD mountain Shares this 12 months A combined authorities underneath Trump might additionally bode effectively for shares of Verizon , the agency mentioned, by loosening merger scrutiny and rising the chance of its acquisition of Frontier. Nevertheless, the agency mentioned, a break up authorities underneath Harris would profit competitor AT & T . The agency additionally thinks a Harris victory would result in extra antitrust scrutiny within the telecommunications area, and have an effect on T-Cell’s buy of U.S. Mobile’s wi-fi enterprise. Heightened antitrust controls over Google and its native search monopoly in a Democrat sweep and break up Harris authorities must also profit shares of Yelp, down 27% this 12 months, the agency mentioned. Republican sweep Raymond James views Salesforce as a possible large winner in a Republican sweep, noting that “extra favorable” company tax charges ought to profit cyclical software program names. The end result may be a boon to shares of Apple , up 17.6% this 12 months. The agency mentioned different large winners embody shares of analog semiconductor suppliers equivalent to Texas Devices . The sector must also be protected against tariffs and commerce restrictions and profit from decrease tax charges, the agency mentioned. Funds firms equivalent to Shift4 Funds might also see tailwinds from a Trump win by easing regulatory fears and lead buyers to maneuver out of huge fintech shares and into banks and expertise names, mentioned Davis. “Nevertheless, total financial exercise might enhance as we count on decrease taxes and better inflationary spending,” he wrote. “Given this, we favor names with significant macro publicity that might considerably profit from elevated spending and better inflation.” Winners in each situation CrowdStrike and Datadog might win large whatever the presidential end result, Raymond James mentioned. Analyst Adam Tindle views cybersecurity and IT operations as “essential” irrespective of the election end result. He additionally expects shares with larger valuations to profit in a decrease rate of interest atmosphere with extra danger urge for food. Shares of CrowdStrike have gained 13% this 12 months, bouncing again after a software program replace shuttered flights and induced one of many largest IT outages this summer time. Datadog shares have slumped greater than 3% in 2024. Past the software program sector, the agency views Intel as a key winner poised to profit from rising help for American semiconductor firms and the subsidies supplied by CHIPS Act funding. Intel’s inventory has shed greater than half its worth this 12 months because the chipmaker grapples with market share losses and wrestle to realize a foothold in AI. Latest studies have swirled that Qualcomm is weighing a takeover of the corporate, whereas Apollo World Administration has weighed an funding. Megacaps Alphabet and Meta Platforms ought to profit whatever the end result for a spread of causes, the agency mentioned. Analyst Josh Beck famous {that a} probably TikTok ban ought to bode effectively for each firms by forcing advertisers to redistribute spending. A Republican win would additionally imply a extra “hands-off” method to AI regulation. The agency named Arista Networks among the many communication tools shares that ought to bode effectively in any authorities end result, poised to profit from the early phases of the bogus intelligence infrastructure buildout and heightened enterprise adoption.