There’s loads of hoopla about age today. However not for me. [GUNSHOT] See that man within the pink shirt? That’s Allan Lichtman, 77-year-old Allan Lichtman. And he’s racing within the qualifiers for the Senior Olympics. However there’s one other sort of race Allan’s simply as certified for. “Allan Lichtman.” “Allan Lichtman.” “Professor Allan Lichtman.” “Who has accurately predicted—” “—nearly each presidential election since 1984.” And right now Allan Lichtman is able to inform us who’s going to win in 2024. [MUSIC PLAYING] You see, you could suppose Allan’s only a jock. “Nicely, I used to be a steeplechase champion within the Nineteen Seventies.” “His title is Dr. Allan Lichtman.” However he’s really sort of a nerd. A historical past professor and a quiz present champion. Today, he’s on a special sort of successful streak. To make his presidential predictions, Allan’s mannequin ignores the polls and the pundits. “It hinges on 13 keys that I developed in 1981 with my geophysicist buddy, Vladimir Keilis-Borok. It’s based mostly on 120 years of presidential election outcomes earlier than then.” Informed you. He’s a nerd. Allan’s mannequin was one of many few that known as it for Trump in 2016. “Donald Trump goes to win.” And in 2020, Allan bought it proper once more. “Trump will lose the White Home. The race was tight, however the keys have been proper.” So let’s get to how these keys really work. “They’re 13 big-picture, true-false questions that faucet into the energy and efficiency of the White Home occasion. And solely two keys have something to do with the candidates.” However Allan, 2024 is an unprecedented election 12 months. Can your 13 keys actually name it proper? “The keys completely will work. They’re the fixed northern star of political prediction.” All proper. Time to run these keys and discover out who would be the subsequent president of the USA, in line with Allan. “However first, let me become one thing just a little extra comfy.” [GUNSHOT] No. 1, the White Home occasion gained Home seats between midterm elections. “The Democrats did higher than anticipated in 2022, however they nonetheless misplaced Home seats. So the secret is false.” Keep in mind, a false secret is good for Trump. No. 2, the incumbency key. The sitting president is operating for re-election. “Biden withdrew from the race, costing the Democrats this key. It’s false.” Wait, you’re saying it will have helped the Democrats if Biden stayed in? “If Biden stayed in, they’d have salvaged this one key. That’s all.” Hmm, OK. Shifting on, for now. No. 3, the White Home occasion prevented a main contest. “The Democrats lastly bought good and united overwhelmingly behind Vice President Harris. So the secret is true.” A real key. That strikes Harris off the beginning block. No. 4, there’s no third-party challenger. “R.F.Ok. Jr. has dropped out of the race and no different third- occasion candidate is anyplace near the ten p.c polling threshold wanted to show this key. It’s true.” 4 keys in and it’s neck and neck. Let’s maintain going. No. 5, the short-term economic system is powerful. “Look, regardless of all of the unfastened discuss a so-called vibecession, the economic system will not be in recession. So this secret is true.” No. 6, long-term financial development throughout this presidential time period has been at the least pretty much as good because the final two phrases. “Progress throughout the Biden time period is much forward of development throughout the earlier two phrases. So this secret is clearly true.” No. 7, the White Home has made main modifications to nationwide coverage. “Rejoining the Paris Accords on local weather change, the CHIPS invoice, the infrastructure invoice, the Inflation Discount and local weather change invoice. Clearly, the secret is true.” No. 8, there isn’t any sustained social unrest throughout the time period. “There have been sporadic protests, however nothing approaching the huge, sustained social unrest wanted to show this key. So it’s true.” However colleges are simply going again to session. With new protests, couldn’t this key flip? “Sure, there are loads of protesters upset with Biden’s insurance policies within the Center East, however now, with Harris, not Biden, entrance and heart, that has dampened social unrest.” No. 9, the White Home is untainted by scandal. “Oh, my favourite key, the scandal key. And Republicans have been attempting for years to pin a scandal on President Biden and are available up empty. So the secret is true.” However come on, Allan. Biden’s horrific debate efficiency, questions on his age, Hunter Biden, doesn’t any of that depend? “No. There needs to be at the least some bipartisan recognition of precise corruption that implicates the president himself and never a member of the family. So the important thing stays true.” So two false and 7 true thus far. Trying fairly good for the Democrats. We now have 4 keys left, all of which must be false for Trump to have a path. No. 10, the incumbent occasion candidate is charismatic. “This can be a very excessive threshold key. You must be a once-in- a-generational, broadly inspirational candidate. Harris has not met that normal. So this secret is false.” No. 11, the challenger is uncharismatic. “Some individuals suppose Donald Trump is a god, however he solely appeals to a slender base. In order that secret is true.” However wait, meaning — “The Democrats will maintain on to the White Home and Kamala Harris would be the subsequent president of the USA.” However wait a sec, Allan. We nonetheless have two keys left. The overseas coverage keys? “You’re proper. Overseas coverage is hard, and these keys might flip. The Biden administration is deeply invested within the battle in Gaza which is a humanitarian catastrophe for ever and ever. However even when each overseas coverage keys flipped false, that may imply that there have been solely 5 adverse keys, which might not be sufficient for Donald Trump to regain the White Home.” So I suppose meaning you’re standing by your prediction. “Kamala Harris would be the subsequent president of the USA. Not less than, that’s my prediction for this race. However the end result is as much as you. So get out and vote.” Nicely, I suppose that settles that race. However what in regards to the one we began with? “Nicely, I gained some medals. I didn’t get harm. And I certified for the 2025 Nationwide Senior Olympics. Not dangerous for a 77-year-old, huh?” [MUSIC PLAYING]
